Forgot password? | Register here

Editor's Picks

Hitchens on the Candidates


More Videos
Current Featured Debate

Obama’s Nixon Reprise

Bret Stephens | The Wall Street Journal

Lurching With Abandon

Bob Herbert | The New York Times

Current Featured Debate

Fifteen Things You Should Know About ‘The Race’

Michelle Malkin | Primetime Politics

The U.S. Keeps Its Global Commitments

William McGurn | Wall Street Journal

That ‘70s Show: Detroit

Paul Ingrassia | Wall Street Journal

Winning Isn’t News

Editorial | Investor's Business Daily

The Obamacons

Thomas Sowell | Primetime Politics

Stealing Freedom: Democrat ‘Media Reform’

Lance Fairchok | American Thinker

Marketing 101

Yuval Levin and Ramesh Ponnuru | The Weekly Standard

Finding Common Ground With Russia

Henry A. Kissinger | The Washington Post

Put War Powers Back Where They Belong

James A. Baker III and Warren Christopher | The New York Times

Pakistan’s Deal with the Devil

Walter Mayr | Salon



Article

So Emotional

Thomas Sowell | Primetime Politics 4 Comments Discuss
Added: May 13, 2008

Some people think that the reason the public misunderstands so many issues is that these issues are too “complex” for most voters. But is that really so?

With all the commotion in the media and in politics about the high price of gasoline, is there really some terribly complex explanation?

Is there anything complex about the fact that with two countries — India and China — having rapid economic growth, and with combined populations eight times that of the United States, they are creating an increased demand for the world’s oil supply?

The problem is not that supply and demand is such a complex explanation. The problem is that supply and demand is not an emotionally satisfying explanation. For that, you need melodrama, heroes, and villains.

It is clear that many people prefer to blame President Bush. Others prefer to blame the oil companies, who have long been the favorite villains of the Left.

Politicians understand that. Numerous times they have summoned the heads of oil companies before Congressional committees to be denounced on nationwide television for “greed,” with the politicians calling for a federal investigation to “get to the bottom of this!”

Now that is emotionally satisfying, which is the whole point. By the time yet another federal investigation is completed — and turns up nothing to substantiate the villainy that is supposed to be the reason for high gasoline prices — most people’s attention will have turned to something else.

Newspapers that carried the original inflammatory charges with banner headlines on Page One will carry the story of the completed investigation that turned up nothing as a small item deep inside the paper.

This has happened at least a dozen times over the past few decades and it will probably happen again.

What about those “obscene” oil company profits we hear so much about?

An economist might ask, “Obscene compared to what?” Compared to the investments made? Compared to the new investments required to find, extract and process additional oil supplies?

Asking questions like these are among the many reasons why economists have never been very popular. They frustrate people’s desires for emotionally satisfying explanations.

If corporate “greed” is the explanation for high gasoline prices, why are the government’s taxes not an even bigger sign of “greed” on the part of politicians — since taxes add more to the price of gasoline than oil company profits do?

Whatever the merits or demerits of Senator John McCain’s proposal to temporarily suspend the federal taxes on gasoline, it would certainly lower the price more than confiscating all the oil companies’ profits.

But it would not be as emotionally satisfying.

Senator Barack Obama clearly understands people’s emotional needs and how to meet them. He wants to raise taxes on oil companies.

How that will get us more oil or lower the price of gasoline is a problem that can be left for economists to puzzle over. A politician’s problem is how to get more votes — and one of the most effective ways of doing that is to be a hero who will save us from the villains.

You have heard of the cavalry to the rescue. But have you ever heard of economists to the rescue?

While economists are talking supply and demand, politicians are talking compassion, “change,” and being on the side of the angels — and against drilling for our own oil.

Has any economist ever attracted the kinds of cheering crowds that Barack Obama has — or even the crowds attracted by Hillary Clinton or John McCain?

If you want cheering crowds, don’t bother to study economics. It will only hold you back. Tell people what they want to hear — and they don’t want to hear about supply and demand.

No, supply and demand is not too “complex.” It is just not very emotionally satisfying.

(c) 2008 Creators Syndicate, Inc.

Comment Email this Article Post an Article

Comments

If supply & demand govern prices, how would suspending taxes on gasoline effect them?  Wouldn’t the price float back to the pre-suspension level in order to balance supply and demand?  I.e., if taking oil company profits would have no impact, why would taking the government’s profit have an impact?

Posted by Roger Astro  on  05/13  at  07:40 AM

Supply and demand means that companies set prices based on how much it cost them to produce the good plus some added margin to allow them a reasonable profit. Tax is added above and beyond this market price of gas.  Taking company profits would directly lead to price increases (passed onto consumers), because it changes the cost to them to produce the good.  Companies would compensate for lost revenues by increasing prices in order for the companies to meet their profit margins.  Presumably, taking away the tax does not affect company’s cost to produce the good, and therefore their profit margins are unaffected.  So a tax decline should be reflected as a gas price decline because you are removing an added dollar amount above and beyond the market price of gas.

Posted by MichelleO  on  05/13  at  09:22 PM

Well said Michelle, thanks for the concise clarification.

Posted by rookie  on  05/13  at  10:55 PM

That’s not the way I learned supply and demand.  I learned it had nothing to do with margins; if the supply/demand curve dictated a price where you failed to earn an adequate margin, you failed (which, probably then, decreased supply in the marketplace, and a price increase - enabling other companies to stay in business; more efficient companies with profit margins greater than those that failed).  In other words, the supply/demand curve says that if supply is “x” amount, all of it can be sold at price “y” (increase the price, there will be a surplus of product, because demand is not that great; decrease price and there will be a shortage, because demand is too great).

It has nothing to do with any given company’s profit - at least that’s the way I understood it.  Simply a matter of what customers are willing to pay.  Of course, determining the exact nature of the supply/demand curve at any given point is problematic, but with a fungible product like gasoline, market studies can be more accurate than in other, more complex markets.  Chances are, the oil companies know pretty precisely what price will sell off whatever the current supply is.

Other factors enter into it - like speculation on future supply, but eventually those are washed out in the cost picture (the one that has nothing to do with price - but which does determine whether a given enterprise will fail or survive).

In the current market, supplies are so precarious, and demand so high, that sellers may exploit the supply/demand curve and make huge profits.  But I still maintain that removing the tax from the equation will have no impact on the supply/demand curve: both supply and demand will remain the same with or without taxes, and price should react (i.e., rise to fill the tax “gap") accordingly.

IMHO.

Posted by Roger Astro  on  05/13  at  11:36 PM

Name:

Email:

URL:

Remember my personal information

Notify me of follow-up comments?

Comment Policy

Please keep comments on topic and civil. Comments deemed by the editors to be rude, obnoxious, mean-spirited, or off topic may be removed without notice